How are Estimated Sales and Revenue Calculated?
The Alura Extension uses data directly from Etsy’s API in combination with our proprietary algorithm to estimate sales and revenue.
We’ve registered as an official Etsy app which enables us to see information such as how many views a listing has, the number of favorites, and more. These variables, and others, are used in our algorithm to make the estimates.
The algorithm uses machine learning and was developed after analyzing more than a million Etsy listings. The data points are gathered from a variety of sources, including actual Etsy sellers who have opted to share their sales info with us.
Lastly, we have a team of highly talented developers and data scientists (two Master's degrees in Business Analytics) that have worked to develop the algorithm.
How accurate are the estimates?
We’ve put a tremendous amount of time into the accuracy of our sales estimates and because we get our data directly from Etsy our estimates are exceptionally accurate.
That being said, the sales estimates are not 100% all of the time. We have found that in general, our margin of error ranges up to around 20% which means that if we estimate that a product has had 10 sales in the past 30 days, it might actually be 8 or 12.
We’re extremely proud of reaching that level of accuracy. At the end of the day, sales estimates aren’t an indication of guaranteed success, but they are a great indicator of demand on Etsy.